Impact of income on the structure of alcohol sales in Russia

The level and structure of alcohol consumption is determined by a number of factors, one of which is the level of income [1]. A number of studies have shown the impact of the state of macroeconomics and economic cycles on the level of alcohol consumption [2,3]. The study of the relationship between the level of alcohol consumption and GDP, based on data from 189 countries of the world, showed that consumption increases linearly with the growth of GDP to 15 thousand dollars, while further GDP growth does not affect the level of alcohol consumption [2].


Introduction
The level and structure of alcohol consumption is determined by a number of factors, one of which is the level of income [1]. A number of studies have shown the impact of the state of macroeconomics and economic cycles on the level of alcohol consumption [2,3]. The study of the relationship between the level of alcohol consumption and GDP, based on data from 189 countries of the world, showed that consumption increases linearly with the growth of GDP to 15 thousand dollars, while further GDP growth does not affect the level of alcohol consumption [2].
Studies conducted in Russia have found a positive correlation between income and alcohol consumption at the individual level [4,5]. In particular, it was shown that income growth is accompanied by an increase in the overall level of alcohol consumption due to an increase in both the frequency of consumption and the dose of alcohol consumed [4]. In another work based on Russian data, a direct relationship was demonstrated between the level of income and the level of vodka consumption [5].
One of the main factors of the high level of alcohol problems in Russia is traditionally considered the binge drinking pattern of alcohol consumption, which is characterized by the consumption of large doses of strong alcohol within a short period of time [7][8][9]. However, according to the offi cial statistics of alcohol sales, as well as the results of sociological surveys, since the mid-1990s in Russia, there is a decrease in the share of vodka in the consumption structure against the background of an increase in the share of beer and wine [10][11][12][13]. Similar changes in the structure of alcohol consumption are noted in other countries where the binge drinking pattern of alcohol consumption prevails, which correspond to the global trend of homogenization of styles of alcohol consumption [7].

Discussion
The results of the time-series analysis reproduce the data obtained earlier, indicating the existence of a negative relationship between income and the sale of vodka, as well as a positive relationship between income and the sale of beer/wine at the population level [4]. The presented data indicate that the income growth is accompanied by a decrease in the share of vodka in the structure of alcohol sales and an increase in the share of beer and wine.
It should be noted, however, that in certain time intervals of the period under consideration, the nature of the relationship between income and the sale of various alcoholic beverages does not correspond to the revealed general pattern. For example, in the period from 2009 to 2013 the level of beer sales declined amid rising income. In the last two years of the period under review, the level of sales of all alcoholic beverages declined amid falling income. These discrepancies point to the existence of some unaccounted factors other than income levels that infl uence the pattern of alcohol sales.
It is believed that the main factors behind the sharp increase in the level of sales of vodka in the fi rst half of the 1990s where: convenient object for studying the impact of the level of income of the population on the structure of alcohol consumption. In one of the previous econometric studies carried out in Russia at the individual level, it was shown that as the level of income rises, the demand for spirits decreases, while the demand for beer and wine grows [4].
The aim of this study was to study the relationship between income and the structure of alcohol sales in Russia at the population level.

Results
The dynamics of GDP and the level of sales of various types of alcoholic beverages are shown in Figure 1   The beginning of the so-called "beer revolution" in 1999 correlates with the aggressive advertising campaign for beer against the background of the introduction of a ban on advertising of vodka in the media [12]. In subsequent years, international campaigns developed the Russian beer industry, making large investments and increasing production [13]. The change in the structure of alcohol consumption in Russia took place in the context of changes in alcohol preferences by various social and age groups. It was noted that representatives of the younger generation prefer beer, and those with a higher level of education replace the consumption of vodka with wine [12]. There is also a tendency towards a shift in vodka consumption to older age groups [13]. These data The limitation of this study is the lack of reliability of the offi cial statistics on alcohol sales. This is especially true of vodka, a part of the sales volume of which is not recorded by offi cial statistics [6]. The relatively high proportion of unrecorded alcohol makes it diffi cult to study the infl uence of various factors on the structure of alcohol consumption in Russia [11].
In conclusion, this study found a negative relationship between income and sales of vodka/the share of vodka in the structure of alcohol sales, as well as a positive relationship between income and sales of low alcohol drinks (wine and beer) at the population level. These suggest that the improvement of the macroeconomic situation and the growth of incomes of the population was one of the drivers of the change in the structure of alcohol sales in Russia in favor of low-alcohol beverages.