The Role of Climate Change in the Dynamics of the Kazakhstan Population of Saiga (Saiga Tatarica L.)

This article submits the analysis of the study of the climate change and its infl uence on dynamics of the number of saigas in Kazakhstan, which appeared 20 thousand years ago as a mammoth and a rhinoceros. The analysis concentrates on the study of the climate change infl uencing the mass murrain of antelopes (saigas) from the beginning of a new century. Since the beginning of a new century their quantity has decreased by 3-10 times owing to two factors: epizooty pasteurellosis caused by the climate change and sharp reduction of a genetic variety. The environmental disaster connected with the mass murrain of saigas is caused by full insuffi ciency of information about the fi eld of the wind (shifts) in the lower layers of the atmosphere. It is necessary to bring the Doppler-radar installation in the obligatory list of meteorological devices by the expeditious defi nition of distribution of the fi eld of the wind (wind shears) in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Especially it concerns the regions of the way of migration of the population of saigas. Otherwise, environmental disasters due to the dangerous external infl uence of the environment fi elds of the wind (shifts) will continue. In epizooty, the zone during one week had 3-4 norms of a monthly deposit, caused by the change of the western cyclone into the northern one. High humidity, the main factor of the murrain of saigas, causes anaerobic enterotoxemia and pasteurellosis. Research Article The Role of Climate Change in the Dynamics of the Kazakhstan Population of Saiga (Saiga Tatarica L.) Murat Nurushev1*, Assel Nurusheva1 and Azim Baibagyssov2 1Faculty of Natural History, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, 5 K. Munaitpassov Street, Almaty Raion, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan 2Scientifi c-Research Institute of Ecology, Al Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan Received: 19 July, 2017 Accepted: 05 December, 2020 Published: 09 December, 2020 *Corresponding author: Murat Nurushev, Faculty of Natural History, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, 5 K. Munaitpassov Street, Almaty Raion, Astana 010000, Kazakhstan, Tel: + 7 7072407458; E-mail:


Introduction
Climate change of Anthropogenous and its infl uence on the environment (plant and animal life) -are an integral part of a bio-meteorological problem [1]. The climate change is connected with frequent transfer of heat and humidity in the atmosphere of the Asian continent which leads to the increase of the weather cataclysms -drought, hot dry winds, tornado, fl oods and hail [2].
The analysis of the data, including rings of trees, corals, ice cores, etc., gives the opportunity to the authors [3,4] to claim that the rise of temperature of the surface of the sea happened twice more slowly than the air temperature did over the land.
The registered data of observations indicate the existence of considerable variability of temperature. So, in the 20thcentury the rise of temperature within two periods took place: from 1910 to 1945 and from 1976 to 2000. It is very probable that a decade from 1990 to 2000 had been the warmest for the entire period of observations since 1861, and 1998 was the warmest in all history of instrument observations [5].
The climate change in the territory of Eurasia within the 20th century is confi rmed by the researches [6]. It is within the last 40 years the annual average of air temperature had increased by 1 animals is the saiga -Saiga tatarica L. In the recent past it was a background species of hoofed animals, which exceeded 1.0 million heads in the number.
Nowadays three populations of saigas live in the Republic of Kazakhstan; they are almost completely isolated from each other -betpak-dalinsky, Ustyurt and Ural [10]. Until the end of the last century, saigas were widely used as a trade species. The meat was in great demand with the population and the skin was used for the production of high-quality suede. For fi ve years (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985) in Kazakhstan 900 thousand saigas were shot. About 14 thousand tons of meats were produced. The production cost (including export of meat and horns) from this animal made about 19 million rubles, and the net profi t cost 10 million rubles [10].

Materials and methods
Studying a bioclimatology the method of "interactions between live organisms and factors of the atmosphere of the environment" was applied [11]. In the analysis of the climate change there were used Reports on the results of the assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [5].
In the research there were used such main methods as: a descriptive method at a laying of the trial areas for collecting fi eld material (biological objects), the description of habitats of saigas and other animal species; a comparative method -by comparison ecological and the epizootic processes and also the materials of the author's own researches, the published works, including electronic resources [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].
In the research there were used the weather service indicators located on the route of migration of saigas (Arshalinsk, Dokuchayevka, Esenkul, Zheleznodorozhnyi, Zhitigara, Kamysty, Karabalyk) in the period of their mass murrain.
In order to investigate the plant community structure, a quadrat-based study was undertaken which enables fi ne scale information about the plant community to be collected whilst also, with a suffi cient number of quadrats, providing information about the larger area. A number of considerations must be taken into account when conducting a study which uses quadrats, including the size and shape of the quadrat. Choices for both may be informed by the literature [23,24] -squareshaped quadrats, for example, are most commonly used. The extent to which the pasture analysis data can be interpreted is severely limited due to the small quantity of data collected.

Features of biology and the future prospect of the saigas ecotype in Kazakhstan
Field researchers specify [25] the saiga diet which includes plants such as: anabasis (Anabasis aphylla L.), bug-infested (Lepidium), Kermek (Limonium Vulgare), ephedra (Ephedra distachya) and others which differ in nutritious and medicinal properties, but aren't eaten by farm animals. Saigas are constantly wandering animals.Within a year, they cover 3-4 thousand kilometers (Figure 3).   1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015   Steady preservation and biological diversity in the global and in the regional aspect are the universal guarantors of the existence of the organic life on Earth [9]. Saigas are the most ancient, hoofed animals of Eurasia. Like a mammoth and wooly rhinoceros they endured a glacial era 20 thousand years ago.
In Kazakhstan the most numerous animal among wild hoofed If the most selective animal among pets on vegetation is the horse that eats every eighth of all the grass, the saiga consumes only 20 of the thousands of species of steppe plants, i.e. every fi ftieth. We found it out studying the food behavior of betpak-dalinsk population in lower reaches of the Sarytorgay River. Generally, these are juicy herbs: glassworts, an ephedra, different types of ice-holes, a wheat grass pectineal, Kentucky bluegrass, fescue, Kermek boyalych, Kokpek, Anabasis salsa, kohii, sorrel that made 98% of the volume of contents of stomachs. Thus, only 12-23 Kg/ hectare of vegetation a year (about 1.5-2% of a crop) are used for food while pets use 100 and more Kg/hectare (12-18%), that shows a weak load of pastures.
The feeding capacity of pastures of the Republic in full prosperity can provide an annual ration from 2 to 3 million saigas, without damaging the environment. All this testifi es to possible enormous prospects of cultivation of steppe antelopes in the territory of Kazakhstan not only as the specifi c variety but also in the long term as a trade type of hoofed animals [9,25]. function. This led to bloating, mild diarrhea and a respiratory based sudden death syndrome, similar to "Fog Fever" [27].
Despite the general trend of increase through the second half of the 20th Century due to Soviet regulation on hunting and trade [28], censuses from 1998 onwards show drastic declines in population numbers throughout the species' range. This is most likely due to increased poaching pressures for meat as a result of economic collapse in rural areas in the antelope's range [29] and, as the horn of the male is prized highly for use in traditional Chinese medicine, they are selectively hunted, resulting in a much skewed sex ratio and the recently observed reproductive collapse of the species [30].
In May 2010 and 2011 the post-calving Ural population of saiga suffered mass mortalities. These mortalities comprised >12,000 and 400 individuals respectively [31] and the cause was offi cially reported to be pasteurellosis. In both years, after calving in mid-May, the population moved on to new pasture and suffered a severe die-off event over a period of only a few days. In 2010 the core period of die-off occurred from the 18th to 24th May and the 2011 event occurred between the 26th and the 27th of May. The observed syndrome in adults was bloat, signs of asphyxia, and pink frothy nasal exudates pre-and post-mortem during both years [32]. The cause of the dieoffs was offi cially reported as pasteurellosis; however recent re-examination of the evidence [32] suggests alternative hypotheses due to a number of characteristics of the events.
Atypical Interstitial Pneumonia (AIP), also known as "fog fever" or Acute Bovine Pulmonary Emphysema and edema (ABPE) (Kerr and Linnabary, 1989), is a potential cause which is consistent with the rapid pathogenesis reported and observed in grazing adults, signs of asphyxia and pink frothy nasal exudates pre-and post-mortem during both years [32]. AIP occurs as a result of rapid pasture change; sudden exposure to lush quality pasture post-calving when animals are in peak lactation and hungry leads to rumen dysfunction due to the limited ability of the rumen to adapt to a sudden increase in the nutrient quality of forage [33]. Certainly, it is the major factor which caused an acute tympanites of the cicatrix of a stomach of a saiga with the transition to an anaerobic enterotoxemia and pasteurellosis.
Eating the juicy green grass moistened with a plentiful atmospheric precipitation causes illness of animals. Fermentation of a forage in the alimentary system of saigas provokes rough reproduction of the corresponding bacteria (infl ation) emitting the toxins getting through blood vessels and internals, striking a nervous system.
Appreciable weakening of a maternal organism was promoted also by age biology of a fetus. In the last month pregnancies, the mass of a fetus is enlarged twice. Considering that saigas can delay terms of childbirth in adverse days (in search of the dry place), the provision of maternal individuals becomes complicated even more. In the bulk, the maternal livestock fell, and their signifi cant amount fell at a stage of labors.

Features population dynamics
In the territory of Kazakhstan, the main part (80-85%) of a modern area of this species is concentrated. Insignifi cant fragments of the area of distribution are available in the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Mongolia. Three geographical populations of saigas live in our Republic: betpak-dalinsk (between Balkhash and the Aral Sea), ustyurtsk (between the Aral and the Caspian Sea) and Ural (in the interfl uence of the Ural and Volga rivers). Some part of the ustyurtsk population for the winter migrates to the South of the neighboring Uzbekistan and a lesser extent to Turkmenistan. A certain part of the Ural population reaches the border regions of Russia. The approach of spring migration of animals is observed in the opposite direction of the territory of Kazakhstan.
The number of saigas is subject to sharp fl uctuations. If in 1991-1993 in Kazakhstan there were 800-900 thousand saigas, but in the next six years they decreased in their livestock proceeded (Table 1)

Mass cases of murrain of Saigas
Population of the saigas is constantly exposed to the    the L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University the scientists of which could become coordinators of the program for the salvation of saigas. Also, the experiment of Australia on the recovery of a kangaroo will be useful to us. We are sure that the assistance will be given from the Governments of RK and the international organizations: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), MSOP, YUNEP, WWF, and PROON.
The protected natural territories united in one ecological network are necessary for Kazakhstan. Basic elements of the protected territories will be national parks and the reserved territories which have to be connected among themselves by the protected objects of regional and local value. Creation of a global eco platform will represent the network of a full form. Otherwise, the isolated elements of the natural protected fund will undergo to the ecological deterioration because of an anthropogenous factor [9].

Effect of ''a bottle neck''
Pasteurellosis epizooty often arises in May when saigas' lambing comes to an end. Mothers, which already gave birth, and their newborn posterity are physically weak for some time. The exhausted gene pool of the population causes weakening of the general immunity of this species. Decrease in the resilience of an organism (immunity) to the banal microfl ora, passerelle (which are often present in the organisms of healthy animals), provokes the fast increase of virulence of these microbes and as a result a high lethality of saigas (mothers and descendants).
In our opinion, exhaustion of a gene pool of a saiga is caused by close inbreeding (closely related crossing) of individuals in a lineage for the last 60 years. Initial Kazakhstani population of saigas in the late forties of the XX-th century didn't exceed 2-3 thousand heads. This phenomenon in the population of animals in genetics is called the effect of "a bottle neck" [25,35]. The concept of the effect of "a bottle neck" refl ects the sharp decrease in a genetic variety or a gene pool of the population that occurs between two next cycles of dynamics of the quantity (critical recession and rise). The curve of the presence of livestock in the narrowest part is similar to a bottle neck and got such fi gurative name. The effect of "a bottle neck" was affected by laws of genetics, mainly, viability of animals. Earlier it was proved on the example of cheetahs. The similar situation led them to sensitivity and diseases.