Theoretical Prerequisites of Climate Change on Mass Murrain Of The Kazakhstan Population of Saiga Antelope (Saiga Tatarica L.)

Climate change of Anthropogenous and its infl uence on the environment (plant and animal life) are an integral part of a bio-meteorological problem [1]. The climate change is connected with frequent transfer of heat and humidity in the atmosphere of the Asian continent which leads to the increase of the weather cataclysms – drought, hot dry winds, tornado, fl oods and hail [2]. The analysis of the data, including rings of trees, corals, ice cores, etc., gives the opportunity to the authors [3,4] to claim that the rise of temperature of the surface of the sea happened twice more slowly than the air temperature did over the land.

information about the larger area. A number of considerations must be taken into account when conducting a study which uses quadrats, including the size and shape of the quadrat.
Choices for both may be informed by the literature [23,24] square-shaped quadrats, for example, are most commonly used. The extent to which the pasture analysis data can be interpreted is severely limited due to the small quantity of data collected. We took FTA papers of whole blood spots from 8 freshly dead, female animals sent them to international reference laboratories for high-throughput sequencing (HTS) protocols. FTA cards were used as backup given the limited resources available and diffi culties in maintaining cold chain and in transportation of fresh samples to local laboratories.
Given the uniformity of the clinical syndrome and consistency of the pathogenesis, the sample of cases selected was small relative to the scale of the die-off, but each case was evaluated in considerable depth and considered representative of the affected population on the basis of the consistent pathology and disease characteristics observed in all the affected animals [9,25].

Features of biology and the future prospect of the saigas ecotype in Kazakhstan
According to our data, compared with the previous period  within the last 40 years the annual average of air temperature had increased by 1.1 °C, and the rain had increased by 63. 1 mm [2,9]. The studies of the air temperature during the 80-year period show a steady tendency of increase with the considerable vibration amplitude from 1.4 °C (1942) till 11.1°C (1995) (Figure 1) [2,9]. Kazakhstan since 1970 the air temperature had increased and that a decade from 1990 to 2000 had been the warmest for the entire period of observations since 1861, and 1998 was the warmest in all history of instrument observations [5].
The climate change in the territory of Eurasia within the 20th century is confi rmed by the researches [6]. It is confi rmed by the long-term researches [7,8] devoted to the bio-meteorological researches published in the International Journal of Biometeorology.
Nowadays three populations of saigas live in the Republic of Kazakhstan; they are almost completely isolated from each other -betpak-dalinsky, Ustyurt and Ural [9,10]. Until the end of the last century, saigas were widely used as a trade species.
The meat was in great demand with the population and the skin was used for the production of high-quality suede. For fi ve years (1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985) in Kazakhstan 900 thousand saigas were shot. About 14 thousand tons of meats were produced. The production cost (including export of meat and horns) from this animal made about 19 million rubles, and the net profi t cost 10 million rubles [10].
We set the goal of the study, to study the impact of climate change on the dynamics of the Kazakhstani population of saiga antelope and give specifi c recommendations for its rescue in the future.

Materials and methods
Studying a bioclimatology the method of "interactions between live organisms and factors of the atmosphere of the environment" was applied [11]. In the analysis of the climate change there were used Reports on the results of the assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [5].
In the research there were used such main methods as: a descriptive method at a laying of the trial areas for collecting fi eld material (biological objects), the description of habitats of saigas and other animal species; a comparative method -by comparison ecological and the epizootic processes and also the materials of the author's own researches, the published works, including electronic resources [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22].
In the research there were used the weather service indicators located on the route of migration of saigas (Arshalinsk, Dokuchayevka, Esenkul, Zheleznodorozhnyi, Zhitigara, Kamysty, Karabalyk) in the period of their mass murrain.
The fi rst dead animals were detected in the Amangeldy District (Kostanay region) of Kazakhstan on May 11, 2015, and additional die-offs were recorded in unconnected discrete locations in the Aktobe, Karaganda and Akmola regions [9,[23][24][25]. A primary diagnosis of hemorrhagic septicemia as the cause of death was proposed at the sites on the basis of clinical signs and gross pathology.
In order to investigate the plant community structure, a quadrat-based study was undertaken which enables fi ne scale information about the plant community to be collected whilst also, with a suffi cient number of quadrats, providing y = 0.043x -78.984 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Atmospherical temperature from this point the thirty-year tendency of temperature raised and a weak tendency to its stabilization in the last fi fteen years takes place.
Steady preservation and biological diversity in the global and in the regional aspect are the universal guarantors of the existence of the organic life on Earth [2,9]. Saigas are the most ancient, hoofed animals of Eurasia. Like a mammoth and wooly rhinoceros they endured a glacial era 20 thousand years ago.
In Kazakhstan the most numerous animal among wild hoofed animals is the saiga -Saiga tatarica L. In the recent past it was a background species of hoofed animals, which exceeded 1.0 million heads in the number.  1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995   Despite the general trend of increase through the second half of the 20th Century due to Soviet regulation on hunting and trade [33], censuses from 1998 onwards show drastic declines in population numbers throughout the species' range. This is most likely due to increased poaching pressures for meat as a result of economic collapse in rural areas in the antelope's range [9,25] and, as the horn of the male is prized highly for use in traditional Chinese medicine, they are selectively hunted, resulting in a much skewed sex ratio and the recently observed reproductive collapse of the species [34].
In May 2010 and 2011 the post-calving Ural population of saiga suffered mass mortalities. These mortalities comprised >12,000 and 400 individuals respectively [20] and the cause was offi cially reported to be pasteurellosis. In both years, after calving in mid-May, the population moved on to new pasture and suffered a severe die-off event over a period of only a few days. In 2010 the core period of die-off occurred from the 18th to 24th May and the 2011 event occurred between the 26th and the 27th of May. The observed syndrome in adults was bloat, signs of asphyxia, and pink frothy nasal exudates pre-and post-mortem during both years [35]. The cause of the dieoffs was offi cially reported as pasteurellosis; however recent re-examination of the evidence [35] suggests alternative hypotheses due to a number of characteristics of the events.
Atypical interstitial pneumonia (AIP), also known as "fog fever" or acute bovine pulmonary emphysema and edema (ABPE) [35]. Potential cause which is consistent with the rapid pathogenesis reported and observed in grazing adults, signs of asphyxia and pink frothy nasal exudates pre-and post-mortem during both years [35]. AIP occurs as a result of rapid pasture change; sudden exposure to lush quality pasture post-calving when animals are in peak lactation and hungry leads to rumen dysfunction due to the limited ability of the rumen to adapt to a sudden increase in the nutrient quality of forage [36]. High to approve a public reserve of "Akshala". The territory of the future reserve will make more than 1 million hectares or more than 10 thousand sq. kilometers.
The last epizooty, large on the scales, is noted in May 2015 in the territory of three areas (The Kostanay, Aktyubinsk, and Akmola region). In total as of June 22, 2015 148 800 carcasses of saigas were utilized.
So far, the experts had two key versions of the causes of a mass murrain. The fi rst, the main one, was based on the climate change reason when in this zone in one week 3-4 rainfalls dropped out that was caused by the change of the western cyclone to the northern one. Kazgidromet's data demonstrated much rainfall exceeding the norm on the place of the mass case of saigas' murrain which was followed by a sharp fall of temperature and intensity of the wind. So, according to the data of meteorological stations, during the fi rst ten days of May there was heavy rain precipitation approximately to 75 mm having the norm of 8-10 mm a month.
Certainly, it is the major factor which caused an acute tympanites of the cicatrix of a stomach of a saiga with the transition to an anaerobic enterotoxemia and pasteurellosis. Eating the juicy green grass moistened with a plentiful atmospheric precipitation causes illness of animals. Fermentation of a forage in the alimentary system of saigas provokes rough reproduction of the corresponding bacteria (infl ation) emitting the toxins getting through blood vessels and internals, striking a nervous system.
Appreciable weakening of a maternal organism was promoted also by age biology of a fetus. In the last month pregnancies, the mass of a fetus is enlarged twice. Considering that saigas can delay terms of childbirth in adverse days (in search of the dry place), the provision of maternal individuals becomes complicated even more. In the bulk, the maternal livestock fell, and their signifi cant amount fell at a stage of labors.

Features population dynamics
In the territory of Kazakhstan, the main part (80-85%) of a modern area of this species is concentrated.

Mass cases of murrain of Saigas
Population of the saigas is constantly exposed to the infl uence of the limiting factors which are traditionally subdivided into atmospheric (weather and climate), biotic   rough reproduction of the corresponding bacteria emitting the toxins getting through blood vessels into all internals, also striking a nervous system.

A group of versions try to explain the cases of saigas' infectious (bacteria and viruses) and parasitic diseases.
4. There is a hypothesis of being poisoned with fuel from the space rocket of Baikonur Cosmodrome containing poisonous components or pathogenic microorganisms from the Soviet biological weapon.
The majority of the given hypotheses are rejected by researchers as not confi rmed. For example, the hypothesis according to which the murrain of saigas occurs because of being poisoned with the rocket fuel heptyl which contains poisonous components including the remnants of the Soviet biological weapons. The latest accident of the carrier rocket "Proton-M" took place on May 16th and the fi rst death cases of saiga were noted earlier, on May 10-11, 2015, in a completely different area. Particularly, according to the Russian Agricultural Supervision in reference laboratory of especially dangerous diseases carried out on June 1-2, 2015, analyses of the pathological material of saigas from Akmolinsk, Aktyubinsk and Kostanay areas in all tests Pasteruellamultocida, type B, the activator of a hemorrhagic septicemia or pasteurellosis, is found. This illness also became the reason of a mass case of saigas in Kazakhstan [25].
The fi rst and the main one was based on the climate change when in this zone during one week there dropped out 3-4 norms of precipitation, caused by the western cyclone change to the northern cyclone. Kazgidromet's data demonstrate the exceeding norm of precipitations on a place of the mass murrain of saigas in the Kostanay region that was followed by a sharp fall of temperature and strengthening of the wind. Therefore, according to an area of the meteorological station for the fi rst decade of May there dropped out from 17 to 75 millimeters of rainfall precipitation at the norm of 8-10 mm. (Ekiden -17 mm, Railway -35 mm, Zhitigara -75 mm and Karabalyk -53 mm). These stations are located in the ways of migration of betpak-dalinsky population.
Certainly, it is the major factor, which caused a sharp tympanum of a hem of a stomach of a saiga with the transition to an anaerobic enterotoxemia and pasteurellosis. The illness is caused by eating the juicy green grass moistened with plentiful atmospheric precipitation by the animals. Fermentation of food in the digestive system stimulates rapid reproduction of the corresponding bacteria (swelling) emitting the toxins which get through the blood vessels and internals, striking the nervous system (Table 2).
It is established by us that saigas are representatives of hoofed dry steppes and deserts. They feel badly in the rainy spring and in the winter with the large volume of snow. Global climate change in the territory of Kazakhstan is characterized by steady pouring rains and the change of one cyclone by another in separate years. It negatively infl uences dynamics of the population of saigas and it caused mass murrain during these periods.
A signifi cant weakening of the maternal organism of saiga was promoted also by age biology of a fetus. In the last month of pregnancy, the mass of a fetus increases in weight twice. In the most part an adult uterus perished, their essential quantity has died at a stage of childbirth.   3. It is necessary to create comfortable conditions to a uterine livestock for childbirth in places of mass lambing, especially to strengthen the protection of "rest zones". In such zones any economic activity (a cattle pasture, movement of cars, etc.) for 10-15 days before lambing and for 15-20 days after that has to be forbidden. An urgent task is a fi ght against wolves and stray dogs.

Comprehensive scientifi c support of research institutions
at the international level concerning the weather forecast and biology of the migrating animals, with the single coordination Center in the city of Astana, is necessary. The Higher educational institution where there are qualifi ed personnel, space monitoring and direct proximity to a research object can perform this work. To all these criteria there corresponds the L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University the scientists of which could become coordinators of the program for the salvation of saigas. Also, the experiment of Australia on the recovery of a kangaroo will be useful to us. We are sure that the assistance will be given from the Governments of RK and the international organizations: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), MSOP, YUNEP, WWF, and PROON.
The protected natural territories united in one ecological network are necessary for Kazakhstan. Basic elements of the protected territories will be national parks and the reserved territories which have to be connected among themselves by the protected objects of regional and local value. Creation of a global eco platform will represent the network of a full form. Otherwise, the isolated elements of the natural protected fund will undergo to the ecological deterioration because of an anthropogenous factor [9,25,38].

Effect of «a bottle neck»
Pasteurellosis epizooty often arises in May when saigas' lambing comes to an end. Mothers, which already gave birth, and their newborn posterity are physically weak for some time. The exhausted gene pool of the population causes weakening of the general immunity of this species. Decrease in the resilience of an organism (immunity) to the banal microfl ora, passerelle (which are often present in the organisms of healthy animals), provokes the fast increase of virulence of these microbes and as a result a high lethality of saigas (mothers and descendants).
In our opinion, exhaustion of a gene pool of a saiga is caused by close inbreeding (closely related crossing) of individuals in a lineage for the last 60 years. Initial Kazakhstani population of saigas in the late forties of the XX-th century didn't exceed 2-3 thousand heads. This phenomenon in the population of animals in genetics is called the effect of "a bottle neck" [25,38]. The concept of the effect of "a bottle neck" refl ects the sharp decrease in a genetic variety or a gene pool of the population that occurs between two next cycles of dynamics of the quantity (critical recession and rise). The curve of the presence of livestock in the narrowest part is similar to a bottle neck and got such fi gurative name. The effect of "a bottle neck" was affected by laws of genetics, mainly, viability of animals. Earlier it was proved on the example of cheetahs. The similar situation led them to sensitivity and diseases.